ROLLUP PLATFORM
Valuation scenarios

What the portfolio could be worth

Enterprise value is portfolio EBITDA times an exit multiple. These are scenarios chosen by the founders for planning, not quoted market prices, and nothing here should be presented to a partner as a guaranteed valuation.

Fully mature portfolio — 20 companies

Every cohort has completed its maturation curve. This is the steady-state target, reached after Month 36.

Companies20
Network revenue$150M
Portfolio EBITDA$30M
EBITDA margin20.0%
EV @ 8x downside$240M
EV @ 10x base$300M
EV @ 12x target$360M
Month 36 as modeled

End of Q12. The later cohorts are still mid-curve, so EBITDA is below steady state.

Companies20
Network revenue$141.9M
Portfolio EBITDA$25.8M
EBITDA margin18.2%
EV @ 8x downside$206.4M
EV @ 10x base$258M
EV @ 12x target$309.6M
Mature EV — downside 8x
$240M
Conservative planning case
Mature EV — base 10x
$300M
Working planning case
Mature EV — target 12x
$360M
Upside case — not a market quote

Multiple sensitivity

Applied to mature portfolio EBITDA
6x
$180M
7x
$210M
8x
$240M
9x
$270M
10x
$300M
11x
$330M
12x
$360M
13x
$390M
14x
$420M
8x
10x
12x

Milestone, not ambition

$100M

$100M of enterprise value is an early proof point on the way to the three-year ambition of $300M base / $360M target. In the base case the model crosses it around Q7 with 18 companies and $12.6M of portfolio EBITDA.

No double counting

Annual JV uplift participation (run-rate)$11M
Portfolio EV @ base multiple$300M

These two are alternative views of the same created value: an annual cash participation and a capitalized exit value. They are deliberately never added together, and the legal waterfall that determines how one converts into the other is still open.