Portfolio model
How the network builds, quarter by quarter
Each line is the annualized run-rate of the portfolio in that quarter, summed across cohorts at their own stage of maturation. Every column is derived from the assumptions — nothing is hard-coded. Mature 20-company economics of $150M revenue and $30M EBITDA arrive after the last cohort finishes its curve, which is later than Month 36.
Annualized run-rate · USD
| Quarter | Phase | Cos. | Revenue | EBITDA | Margin | Frozen baseline | Incremental | JV share | Contractor | Platform fees | EV @ base |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Prove | 1 | $5M | $400K | 8.0% | $400K | $0 | $0 | $400K | $400K | $4M |
| Q2 | Prove | 3 | $15.3M | $1.3M | 8.5% | $1.2M | $105K | $52K | $1.3M | $1.2M | $13M |
| Q3 | Prove | 6 | $31.3M | $2.8M | 9.0% | $2.4M | $428K | $214K | $2.6M | $2.5M | $28.3M |
| Q4 | Prove | 9 | $48.1M | $4.7M | 9.8% | $3.6M | $1.1M | $547K | $4.1M | $3.9M | $46.9M |
| Q5 | Scale | 12 | $65.9M | $6.9M | 10.5% | $4.8M | $2.1M | $1.1M | $5.9M | $5.3M | $69.3M |
| Q6 | Scale | 15 | $84.7M | $9.6M | 11.3% | $6M | $3.6M | $1.8M | $7.8M | $6.8M | $95.6M |
| Q7 | Scale | 18 | $104.4M | $12.6M | 12.1% | $7.2M | $5.4M | $2.7M | $9.9M | $8.4M | $126.3M |
| Q8 | Scale | 20 | $120M | $15.7M | 13.1% | $8M | $7.7M | $3.9M | $11.9M | $9.6M | $157.4M |
| Q9 | Institutionalize | 20 | $126.3M | $18.4M | 14.6% | $8M | $10.4M | $5.2M | $13.2M | $10.1M | $184.3M |
| Q10 | Institutionalize | 20 | $132.2M | $21.1M | 16.0% | $8M | $13.1M | $6.6M | $14.6M | $10.6M | $211.4M |
| Q11 | Institutionalize | 20 | $137.5M | $23.7M | 17.2% | $8M | $15.7M | $7.8M | $15.8M | $11M | $236.6M |
| Q12 | Institutionalize | 20 | $141.9M | $25.8M | 18.2% | $8M | $17.8M | $8.9M | $16.9M | $11.4M | $258M |
Where EBITDA goes
Frozen baseline vs uplift splitThe bottom band is the contractors' frozen floor, untouched by the JV. Above it, value created after joining splits 50% / 50% between contractor and JV.